The honest numbers
Firms rarely publish full funnels, but the public data points (firm transparency reports, third-party studies, and processor payout disclosures) paint a consistent picture: only a small fraction of challenge buyers ever see a payout. Most estimates land in the high-single-digits to low-teens percent.
| Funnel stage | Rough survival rate | What kills people |
|---|---|---|
| Buy challenge → pass evaluation | ~10–25% | Daily drawdown on news; over-leverage |
| Pass → reach first payout | ~40–60% of those funded | Consistency rule; revenge trading |
| Buy → actually get paid | ~5–12% overall | The two filters above, stacked |
Ranges synthesise publicly disclosed firm funnels and processor data as of 2026. Exact numbers vary widely by firm, account size and step model — treat these as orders of magnitude, not precision.
Why most traders never get paid
- They fail the evaluation on a single oversized loss — usually a news event or a tilt after a losing streak.
- They get funded, then break the consistency rule by going for a home-run day too early.
- They treat the simulated capital as 'house money' and abandon the risk plan that passed them.
- They quit one or two payouts in, before the math of a real edge compounds.
What the paid minority do differently
- 1Risk small — typically 0.25–1% per trade, so no single day can fail a drawdown OR trip the consistency rule.
- 2Trade the minimum required days deliberately, spreading profit instead of front-loading it.
- 3Take the first payout as soon as eligible to lock in proof and reduce psychological pressure.
- 4Pick firms whose rules fit their style (scalpers avoid tight trailing drawdowns; swing traders confirm weekend holding).
The uncomfortable truth: the market is only half the game. Clearing the firm's rule set is the other half — and it's where most of the attrition happens.