The honest numbers
Firms rarely publish full funnels, but the public data points (firm transparency reports, third-party studies, and processor payout disclosures) paint a consistent picture: only a small fraction of challenge buyers ever see a payout. Most estimates land in the high-single-digits to low-teens percent.
| Funnel stage | Rough survival rate | What kills people |
|---|---|---|
| Buy challenge → pass evaluation | ~10-25% | Daily drawdown on news; over-leverage |
| Pass → reach first payout | ~40-60% of those funded | Consistency rule; revenge trading |
| Buy → actually get paid | ~5-12% overall | The two filters above, stacked |
Ranges synthesise publicly disclosed firm funnels and processor data as of 2026. Exact numbers vary widely by firm, account size and step model, treat these as orders of magnitude, not precision.
Why most traders never get paid
- They fail the evaluation on a single oversized loss, usually a news event or a tilt after a losing streak.
- They get funded, then break the consistency rule by going for a home-run day too early.
- They treat the simulated capital as 'house money' and abandon the risk plan that passed them.
- They quit one or two payouts in, before the math of a real edge compounds.
What the paid minority do differently
- 1Risk small, typically 0.25-1% per trade, so no single day can fail a drawdown OR trip the consistency rule.
- 2Trade the minimum required days deliberately, spreading profit instead of front-loading it.
- 3Take the first payout as soon as eligible to lock in proof and reduce psychological pressure.
- 4Pick firms whose rules fit their style (scalpers avoid tight trailing drawdowns; swing traders confirm weekend holding).
The uncomfortable truth: the market is only half the game. Clearing the firm's rule set is the other half, and it's where most of the attrition happens.